The left after Trump

In an age of rampant inequality and oligarchic government, two leading thinkers ask: can democratic socialism survive?

By Thomas Piketty and Michael Sandel

Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher walk Reagan’s dog Lucky on the White House lawn. Photo by Jim Hubbard/Bettmann Archive/Getty Images

Illustration by Ellie Foreman Peck

The American philosopher Michael Sandel and the French economist Thomas Piketty are among the world’s most influential political thinkers. In their writing on inequality and the moral limits of markets, both are critics of the neoliberal order that has governed the West for the past few decades, and of the capitalist system that has facilitated the savage iniquities of the global economy. In May 2024, they met at the Paris School of Economics. The US election was six months away, but the spectre of Trump was present throughout the conversation between the two thinkers.

“Trump’s victory seemed likely to me then,” Sandel recalled to the New Statesman, the day before the inauguration, “mainly because the Democratic Party had failed to address the legitimate grievances of working people and voters without university degrees.” When Kamala Harris inherited the nomination from Joe Biden, Sandel urged her, in a piece in the New York Times, “to break explicitly from the neoliberal version of globalisation that had brought growing inequality and decades of stagnant real wages for most workers”. The only way of defeating Trump, he felt, “was to speak convincingly to the widespread sense of disempowerment and to offer a bold project of democratic renewal”.

What the left needs, according to Sandel, is a “political vision that combines populism and patriotism – a radical critique of inequality and unaccountable, concentrated economic power (that’s the populism) and a greater emphasis on community, solidarity, and our mutual obligations as citizens (that’s the patriotism)”. It is a mistake, he argued, for the left to “cede patriotism to parties of the right”.

In their conversation, Piketty is optimistic about the march towards equality. Does Sandel retain the same degree of hope? “The richest men in the world, tech moguls Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg, are occupying seats of honour at Trump’s inauguration. Musk alone donated a quarter of a billion dollars to his presidential campaign. So it’s hard to be optimistic, at least in the near term.”

Trump’s “plutocratic populism”, though, Sandel pointed out, “may finally disappoint the working people who supported him. The question is whether progressives will have a more inspiring alternative to offer.”

The exchange between Sandel and Piketty, reproduced here, covers the challenge to progressives, globalisation, populism, and why we should care about inequality.

Michael Sandel: One way of exploring what equality means is by asking why inequality matters. Your research has revealed vividly to all of us just how stark the inequalities of income and wealth are. You’ve shown that in Europe the richest 10 per cent take in more than a third of the income and own more than half of the property. And in the United States, inequalities are even starker. Many of us find this troubling, but why exactly is it a problem?

Thomas Piketty: Let me first stress that I am optimistic about equality and inequality. In my book, A Brief History of Equality, I stress that, even though there’s a lot of inequality today in Europe, in the US, in India, in Brazil – all over the world – in the long run there’s been a movement toward more equality. Where does this movement come from? It comes from social mobilisation and a strong, enormous political demand for equality of rights in access to what people perceive to be fundamental goods, including education, health, the right to vote, and more generally to participate as fully as possible in various forms of social, cultural, economic, civic and political life. In your work you’ve stressed the role of self-government and participation. And I think this appetite for democratic participation and self-government is also what has been driving this movement toward more equality in the long run.

Now, it’s not been there forever, certainly not since prehistoric times. It starts in particular at the end of the 18th century with the French Revolution, the abolition of the privileges of the aristocracy, and with the American Revolution to some extent. And it continues in the 19th century with the abolition of slavery, the rise of labour movements, universal male suffrage, and then the rise of universal female suffrage. It continues in the 20th century with the development of social security, progressive taxation, and decolonisation, and it has continued even in recent decades. Sometimes we talk about the neoliberal era starting in the 1980s, as an era of rising inequality. And it is true to some extent. But in some dimensions of inequality, including gender inequality, racial inequality, and North-South inequality to some extent, the long-run movement toward more equality has continued. And it’s going to continue in the future, in my view. Why? Because together with the rise of modernity, you have the rise of democratic awareness, an appetite for equal access to fundamental goods, to participation in all forms, to dignity in all forms. And this is really the driving force, including for the monetary dimensions of inequality.

The numbers you mentioned about today’s high inequality levels are correct, but they were worse 100 years ago. They were even worse 200 years ago. So there’s been progress in the long run. It’s never been easy. It has always involved enormous political battles and social mobilisation. And it will continue like this. The good news is these are battles that can be won, and they have been won in the past. Studying these battles may be one of the best ways we have to prepare ourselves for the next steps.

MS: You’ve just identified three reasons why inequality is a problem. One is about access to basic goods for everyone. The second is about political equality – voice, power, participation – and then you mentioned briefly a third: dignity. I’d like to see if we can isolate these three reasons why equality and inequality matter. Let’s suppose, hypothetically, that we had the same inequalities of income and wealth we have today, but that we could somehow insulate the political process from those economic inequalities. So, let’s imagine that we could have public financing of campaigns with no private campaign contributions. Suppose we could regulate lobbying so that powerful companies and rich individuals could not have a disproportionate say in politics. Suppose we could somehow insulate political voice and participation from the effects of inequalities of income and wealth. And suppose we could address access to basic human goods – health, education, housing, food, transportation – through a more generous welfare state. So, we’re imagining we could address the first concern, access to basic goods, and the second concern, access to participation and political voice, but still leave intact inequalities of income and wealth. Would there still be a problem?

TP: I think there would still be a problem, in particular for basic dignity and in the human relations and power relations that come with inequality. Monetary distance is more than just monetary distance. It comes with social distance. Of course, companies’ influence on politics and media is one of the most visible impacts of money on the public sphere. And it’s hard to imagine how we could solve this problem with the kind of income and wealth scale that you have today. But even if we could, taking your thought experiment seriously, you would still have enormous inequality in purchasing power over the time of others. So, if by spending the equivalent of one hour of my income, I can buy your entire year of work, that implies kinds of social distance in human relations that raise very serious concerns and questions. So, the very formation of our ideals about democracy and self-government, which involves not only the formal organisation of political campaigns and formal access to news, but also all these more informal relationships in our local community – social relations where people interact with each other, enter into deliberation with each other – is threatened by enormous monetary inequalities.

Finally, in my view, the most important political and philosophical argument is really a historical argument, which is that historically we’ve been able to address all of these concerns together. We’ve been able to reduce inequality enormously – not just access to basic goods and participation, but also monetary inequality in income and wealth. If you look at today, even with the rise of inequality in recent decades, the income gap in Europe is much smaller than 100 years ago. This is less true in the US, but even in the US it is true compared to 100 years ago.

So, we’ve moved toward more equality in the long run, and not only has this not been at the expense of prosperity, but in fact this has been a key component of the rise of modern prosperity. Why? Because behind the enormous increase in prosperity that we’ve seen historically, the rise in a more inclusive and egalitarian socio-economic system – in particular with more inclusive access to education – has been absolutely critical.

Now, there are two limits to that. One is that when we talk about access to basic goods, we have to keep in mind that the goods that we viewed as basic 100 years ago are not the same as today. So today a big issue is how you have a fair system of education, including at the level of higher education. I think the fact that we’ve sort of given up on an ambitious egalitarian objective for higher education is at the source of many of our problems today – economic, and even more so democratic.

A second important caveat is the international and North-South dimension. A big part of the prosperity that we have in the North today, in Europe and in the US historically, has not only come through the rise of education and more inclusive investment in health and skills, which in a way is very positive – a win-win institutional transformation – but also the world division of labour. That’s in effect the exploitation of resources – natural resources and human resources – sometimes in a very brutal manner, and with the extra cost of threatening planetary sustainability, which we see more and more today. This to me is the main limitation of this positive movement toward more equality and more prosperity. But it is also one of the reasons why, in the end, I want to be optimistic, as I think the only way to address these new planetary challenges is to go even further in the direction of equality than we imagined in the past.

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MS: I want to pursue the question of globalisation as it has played out since the 1980s. Now, you and I have both been critical of hyper-globalisation and its insistence on the free flow of capital across borders, and on the free-trade agreements that were part of the neoliberal globalisation project. People like us criticise the unfettered, unregulated flow of capital and goods across borders, but we tend to be in favour of more generous immigration policies, which is the flow of people across borders. And those to the right of centre tend to be critical of increased levels of immigration, even as they endorse and promote the free flow of capital and goods. Which side is being inconsistent?

TP: Your question makes me think of my recent reading of the new edition of your book, Democracy’s Discontent, which was first published in 1996. There, you make very clear how the excesses of globalisation and the fact that left-of-centre governments in effect supported free trade, globalisation, financialisation, and also the rise of meritocratic ideology contributed to the weakening of democracy and the fact that the Republican Party broadly, and Donald Trump in particular, were able gradually to portray the Democrats as a party favouring the winners of the market.

Historically, the Democratic Party, like social democratic and labour parties in Europe, was a party supporting the working class, the lower-middle class, and with very little support from the top of the income and wealth distribution. Now, this has been reversed, and I think, instead of blaming Trump and blaming the Republicans – which is easy to do, of course – I think the Democrats in the US and comparable parties in Europe would be well advised to look at their own shortcomings.

And something I really enjoyed in the new edition of Democracy’s Discontent is the way you show that both the Clinton years, 1992-2000, and the Obama years, 2008-16 – two very long, eight-year administrations with Democratic presidents – were also administrations that legitimated the neoliberal turning point of Reagan in the 1980s. I mean legitimated in the sense that the Democratic administrations continued – maybe this is something you emphasise less than I do – the demolition of progressive taxation started by Reagan in the Eighties. Clinton and Obama did not really try to go against that. And, more to the point, both administrations went very far into the direction of globalisation and free trade, with Nafta [the North American Free Trade Agreement, signed in 1992], the creation of the WTO [World Trade Organisation, founded in 1995] and China’s entry to the WTO just after the end of the Clinton presidency.

Now, should we exercise more control over trade, capital, labour? I think you have to control something, and I think if you don’t control free trade, you don’t control capital flows, then indeed you’ll see the nativist and nationalist alternatives promoted by Trump or Brexiteers in the UK. They say, “OK, let’s control the labour flows.” In the end, I think my answer is that we should control the capital flows and the trade flows much more. With the labour flow, of course, you need to have rules about how you pay for education for the people who come, how you pay for housing. All of this needs to be looked at very carefully. We are not just transporting commodities when people come with their family. You need to look at the social conditions of integration and you have to make sure that all the right conditions are met. But in the end, this is a challenge that can be addressed if we control capital flows and trade flows.

I think that’s why we should be very careful to distinguish the different responses to the excesses of globalisation. You have the sort of nationalist response – nativist, anti-migrant – which we see with Trump, which we see with Marine Le Pen in my own country, etc. But then you also have what in the US was the Sanders response, which I like to call the democratic socialist response. And maybe one point of disagreement we might have is how you use the term “populist” to describe these two different responses to the excesses of globalisation. Of course, you make clear that this is not the same kind of populism, but still you use the term “populist”, which, as far as I’m concerned, I would not use. The term can be, to me, part of rhetoric that’s used a lot by people who claim to be in the centre, but who tend to be mostly the winners of the market process and who like to delegitimate all their opponents by saying: “All my opponents from the left, from the right, are all populists.”

MS: So, you would reserve it for right-wing populists?

TP: I would not use it at all, actually. I would talk about “nationalist ideology”, “socialist ideology”, “liberal ideology”. I think socialism, nationalism, liberalism are legitimate ideologies. They all have a point to bring to the democratic table, to the conversation. Calling them “populist” seems to me generally a strategy to delegitimate some of these groups. At least it can be used this way. I know this is not the way you want to use it, but so many people use it this way. And, as you were mentioning, restricting labour flows is very different from restricting capital flows. And so, if all opponents to free-market globalisation are populists, then we’re mixing up very different things.

MS: Let me try to address that. First, the use of “populism” – and this may reflect differences in nuance or usage between Europe and the US, but the reason I use it to describe Trump and Le Pen on one hand, and a figure like Bernie Sanders on the other, is that, at least in the American political tradition, the origin of the term “populist” in the 19th century was the coming together of industrial workers and farmers to try to win power from economic elites, typically north-eastern economic elites who controlled railroads and later the oil companies. It was a progressive movement, though, even then, it had nativist and anti-Semitic and racist elements. So these two strands – representing the people against the powerful, and this nativist strand – they’ve been present from the start. But in recent times, it seems to me that the success of right-wing populism, the authoritarian nativist strand, arises as a symptom of the failure of progressive or social democratic politics.

We saw this in the financial crisis of 2008, when first a Republican and then a Democratic administration, in the transition from George W Bush to Obama, bailed out Wall Street. In that moment of crisis, Obama had the choice of whether to restructure the relation of finance to the economy or to reinstate it, and he chose the second. I think this was a decisive moment for his presidency because it represented a departure from the civic idealism that he had inspired as a candidate in 2008, not only in the United States, but around the world – the hope and the expectation that this would be the beginning of a new kind of politics. And then when he took office just after the financial crisis, he appointed the same economists who had served in the Clinton administration, who had deregulated the financial industry. He invited them to try to fix things, and what they did was to bail out the banks and leave ordinary homeowners to fend for themselves.

Now, Obama acknowledged that the bailout was unjust. He said it pained him to bail out Wall Street, but he felt it was the only way, given the hold that Wall Street and big finance had on the economy. He wanted to save the economy. But the taxpayer bailout of Wall Street cast a shadow over his presidency. It dashed the hopes for a revival of progressive or social democratic politics that his candidacy had inspired. And it generated two currents of protest: on the left, the Occupy movement, followed by the surprisingly successful candidacy of Bernie Sanders in 2016 against Hillary Clinton; on the right, the Tea Party movement, and the election of Donald Trump.

Both of these strands grew from the anger and outrage and sense of injustice at the bailout and the building back up of Wall Street, without holding anyone to account. So in a way, the progressive, mainstream centre-left politicians who governed in the aftermath of Reagan and Thatcher laid the groundwork for the right-wing version of populism – of Trump in the case of the United States – that followed. They prepared the way for it and bear responsibility for it. When Reagan and Thatcher governed, they explicitly argued that government is the problem and free markets are the solution. They were succeeded by centre-left politicians and political parties – Bill Clinton in the United States, Tony Blair in Britain, Gerhard Schröder in Germany – who softened the harsh edges of thelaissez-faire capitalism of the Reagan-Thatcher years.

But they didn’t challenge the fundamental premise, the market triumphalist premise – namely, that market mechanisms are the primary instruments for defining and achieving the public good. They never challenged that. And so, when they adopted neoliberal trade policies and the deregulation of finance during the 1990s and early 2000s, they were enacting that project and uncritically embracing the market faith. And so we never really had a public debate about where markets serve the public good and where they don’t belong.

But there’s a deeper reason, I think, for the appeal of markets and market mechanisms. I think the deep appeal of the market faith during this period, and perhaps for a longer stretch of time, is that markets seem to offer a way of sparing us as democratic citizens from engaging in messy, contentious, controversial debates about how to value goods and how to value the various contributions that people make to the economy and to the common good. So the market faith arises from a certain liberal aspiration for neutrality toward substantive conceptions of values and the good life. The idea is this: we live in pluralist societies. We disagree about how to value goods. We disagree about the nature of the good life. So, ideally, we would like to rely on instruments that are neutral, that spare us from the need to make those decisions explicitly, because we will disagree. Now, of course, markets are not truly value-neutral instruments. We know that. But the misplaced hope that markets can spare us from debating and deciding contested questions about the common good is a deep source of their appeal.

TP: I agree with that. I think in the end, this is a fear of democracy. This is a fear of democratic deliberation. And this is a fear of what I refer to in my book, Capital and Ideology, as opening the Pandora’s Box of redistribution, but also of the revaluation of what we do. The fear is we don’t know where to stop, and maybe we don’t know where to stop. But in the end, our best chance to get somewhere is to accept this aspiration to self-government, which as you remind us in your writing is at the origin not only of some of the deepest aspirations of the US in the 19th century, but of modernity in general.

Let me come back just a little bit to this term “populist”. You very rightly said that Clinton, Obama, Blair, Schröder, were not able to question the new neoliberal Wall Street kind of ideology about globalisation, financialisation, meritocracy. They were not able to challenge this set of beliefs, but Bernie Sanders, and to some extent Elizabeth Warren, also in 2020, were able to challenge this by putting forward a platform that I like to call democratic socialism, because it goes even further than Franklin D Roosevelt did in terms of progressive taxation. But it also involves a very substantial component of workers’ decision-making power in corporations, with a strong representation of workers on the boards of companies. It also involves a very substantial decommodification strategy through public universities and a public health system. To me, this is not the expression of a sort of populist anger.

So, I’m still a bit puzzled why you want to label this “populist”. I understand the history of the term in the US. As you said, with the early populists in the late 19th century and the early 20th century, there was an uneasy mixture of progressive themes and nativist themes. I really don’t see that in Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Calling them “populist”, I think, is giving too much weight to the way the Clintonians and the Blairites want to distance themselves from people further left. In the end, the position looks very much more like democratic socialism to me, or social democracy for the 21st century, if you want.

MS: Here, maybe, is a nuance of difference in what it means. Populism is not mainly about redistribution, though it does for Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have egalitarian meaning. It’s mainly about reclaiming power for the people from elites. And this is connected to economic inequality. But the populist strand, if it can be distinguished from the social democratic or democratic socialist strand, is less about redistribution than it is about reclaiming power, giving voice to the people, representing the people against the powerful.

Too often, liberals and social democrats have ignored people’s sense of disempowerment and dislocation, the frustration that they lack a meaningful say in shaping the forces that govern their lives. Progressive taxation is an important corrective to inequalities of income and wealth, and to underfunded public services. But it is not enough to renew progressive politics. Centre-left parties need to articulate a bold project of democratic renewal – a politics that honours the dignity of work, that accords social esteem and recognition to everyone who contributes to the common good, whatever their educational credentials, a politics that speaks to the anxieties of the age. 

The full conversation between Thomas Piketty and Michael Sandel is published in “Equality: What It Means and Why It Matters” (Polity)

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https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2025/01/the-left-after-trump-michael-sandel-thomas-piketty?mc_cid=8b4399f96e&mc_eid=37d7e088e0

Is Europe’s left really in crisis? Our research shows it’s complex – and there is hope

Macarena Ares and Silja Häusermann

Mainstream parties of the left are in decline. But progressive politics is thriving far beyond its traditional blue-collar base

Wed 10 Jan 2024

Over the past two decades, election results in western Europe have been framed within the narrative of a crisis of the left. Think of the near-implosion of the French Socialist party as a case in point. In 2022 the Socialist presidential candidate received less than 2% of the first-round vote, the worst presidential election result in the party’s history.

Beyond the ups and downs of specific elections, the performance of social democratic parties has, on average, been marked by a tremendous decline across western European democracies, from a vote share of nearly 40% to below 20%.

But fixating on the fate of social democratic parties alone is misleading: it overlooks the broader fate of progressive politics that prioritises the core principles of egalitarianism, inclusion and sustainability. While mainstream parties on the left are declining, progressive politics is transforming, renewing and in some instances even thriving.

Many of the diagnoses of the left’s challenges rely on assumptions that are at odds with recent research (which we draw on in six new briefs).

One of these flawed claims is the supposed decline of working-class support for the left, which obscures the massive voter gains that progressive parties have made beyond their traditional constituencies. This misinterpretation is rooted in outdated notions about the social composition of progressive party electorates. True, the socioeconomic structure in western Europe today is very different from that which underpinned the golden age of social democracy in the postwar years of the 20th century. The traditional left electorate – industrial workers – has become a minority in most western European democracies, representing 10-20% of the workforce only. However, the decline of the industrial workforce does not signal the demise of progressive politics, for two reasons.

The working class has changed: workers in the service sector, particularly in care, personal and recreational services, are today the most disadvantaged. They differ from the industrial working class in that they tend to be younger, female and often have a migration background. Second, voters from the educated middle classes, often employed in services or the public sector, have become the largest and most loyal electorate of progressive parties, whether social democratic, socialist, green or left-libertarian. Progressive parties today engage with a diverse range of voters, from people in precarious or insecure work, women and migrants, to the expanding middle classes. Any analysis that keeps insisting on the declining blue-collar working class as the sole viable electoral constituency of the left underestimates the electoral base of progressive parties overall.

To wield political influence, progressive politicians and parties need to consolidate support from beyond the industrial working class. Broadening their electoral base to middle-class voters does not need to weaken the redistributive message. On the contrary, research shows that even the newer segments of the left electorate strongly favour progressive, redistributive economic and social policies – beyond their support for social inclusion and sustainability.

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Another false assumption that often skews analysis of the crisis of the left is that the middle-class voters induce a rightward shift on such topics as income redistribution and egalitarianism. Such assumptions are often made about professionals supporting green and left-libertarian parties in the progressive bloc. These left voters tend to have higher levels of income and education than average, and, at first glance, seem to prioritise demands for cultural liberalism, liberal migration policy or environmental measures over questions of social justice. However, attracting the support of these voters will not cost progressive parties their redistributive agenda, as middle-class voters are drawn to parties advocating both economic redistribution and socio-cultural inclusion.

The belief that these voters prioritise one over the other is not supported by the findings of our survey research. On welfare state intervention and income redistribution, green voters do not differ from social-democratic voters at all. Both groups are consistently leftwing in their economic considerations. These voters’ commitment to egalitarian redistributive policy is also manifest in their clear opposition to welfare chauvinism. More than two-thirds of social democratic, green or radical left voters reject restrictions on migrants’ access to social assistance. Moreover, redistributive issues are high on green parties’ agendas. Since the 2010s, in particular, they have emphasised these topics to an even greater extent than social democratic parties.

  • Macarena Ares is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Barcelona. Silja Häusermann is a professor of political science at the University of Zurich. Both are co-convenors of the Progressive Politics Research Network, whose findings are published here

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/10/europe-left-crisis-research-parties-progressive-politics

Adopting rightwing policies ´does not help centre-left wing votes’

Study of European electoral data suggests social democratic parties alienate supporters by moving towards the political centre

Jon Henley Europe correspondent

@jonhenleyWed 10 Jan 2024 06.00 CET

  • Adopting rightwing policies on issues such as immigration and the economy does not help centre-left parties win votes, according to new analysis of European electoral and polling data.

Faced with a 20-year decline in their vote share, accompanied by rising support for the right, far right and sometimes the far left, social democratic parties across Europe have increasingly sought salvation by moving towards the political centre.

However the analysis, published on Wednesday, shows that centre-left parties promising, for example, to be tough on immigration or unrelenting on public spending are both unlikely to attract potential voters on the right, and risk alienating existing progressive supporters.

“Voters tend to prefer the original to the copy,” said Tarik Abou-Chadi, an associate professor of European politics at the University of Oxford and the co-founder of the Progressive Politics Research Network (PPRNet), which launched on Wednesday.

Abou-Chadi said the team of political scientists, from universities including Barcelona, Lausanne, Vienna, Zurich and Berlin, was not “aiming to advise or act as political consultants” but to present “careful, empirical, data-based” research.

“We’re looking to provide a more solid, accurate foundation for an open political debate about progressive politics, who votes for progressive parties and why, and the strategies available to them,” he said. “That involves a bit of myth-busting.”

One of the most significant misperceptions the team’s work had revealed, he said, concerned the nature of support for centre-left parties in Europe. “Social structures have been utterly transformed since the heyday of social democracy,” Abou-Chadi said.

“The average social democratic voter today is very, very different from 50, even 20 years ago – and unlikely to be an industrial worker. The data also shows much of this new constituency is actually both culturally progressive and economically leftwing.”

Analysis showed little real voter competition between the centre left and the radical right, as some social democratic politicians argue. Progressive parties “need to understand and represent the social structures of the 21st century”, Abou-Chadi said.

One of the key lessons was that “trying to imitate rightwing positions is just not a successful strategy for the left”, he said. Two studies in particular, looking at so-called welfare chauvinism and fiscal policy, illustrated the point, the researchers said.

Björn Bremer of the Central European University in Vienna said a survey in Spain, Italy, the UK and Germany and larger datasets from 12 EU countries showed that since the financial crisis of 2008, “fiscal orthodoxy” had been a vote loser for the centre left.

“Social democratic parties that have backed austerity fail to win the support of voters worried about public debt, and lose the backing of those who oppose austerity,” Bremer said. “Centre-left parties that actually impose austerity lose votes.”

As an example, Bremer cited the UK Labour party’s losing 2015 election campaign, which focused on fiscal responsibility. “[When] voters really care about fiscal policy, they’ll go for the ‘issue owner’ – in this instance, the Conservatives, who they’ll always believe are more credible on that question,” he said.

Fiscal orthodoxy – cutting taxes, capping spending, limiting public debt – worked for social democratic parties such as Tony Blair’s New Labour and Gerhard Schröder’s SPD in Germany, but that was “a period of relative stability and growth”, he said.

“We’re now in a different era. The data strongly suggests centre-left parties can build a coalition of voters who believe a strong welfare state, effective public services and real investment, for example in the green transition, are essential,” Bremer said.

“But doing the opposite – offering a contradictory programme that promotes austerity but promises to protect public services and the welfare state, and hoping voters will swallow such fairytales – failed in the 2010s, and is likely to fail again.”

Similarly, said Matthias Enggist of the University of Lausanne, analysis of data from eight European countries showed no evidence that welfare chauvinism – broadly, restricting immigrants’ access to welfare – was a successful strategy for the left.

“There’s little support for it among actual leftwing voters – Green, social democrat or radical left – or potential leftwing voters on the right,” Enggist said. “And leftwing voters mostly really dislike discrimination between immigrants and nationals.”

Voters who do support welfare chauvinism, meanwhile, are likely to not even consider voting for a left-leaning party, he said, adding there was no evidence that this was a strategy to win back enough traditional working-class votes to significantly boost the electoral fortunes of left parties.

Even in Denmark, where a Social Democrat-led government has introduced one of Europe’s toughest anti-immigration regimes, electoral data suggested that restricting immigrants’ rights is not popular with a significant number of the party’s voters.

Politicians on the left who argue the case for welfare chauvinism “overestimate its potential to win new voters”, Enggist said.

“The evidence clearly shows they overestimate the electoral relevance of traditional, white working-class voters – and underestimate how strongly their current middle-class voters care about immigrants being treated decently and equally.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/10/adopting-rightwing-policies-does-not-help-centre-left-win-votes

Rule of law and COVID-19: the need for clarity, certainty, transparency and coordination

Joelle Grogan highlights some points of concern as regards the UK’s response to the pandemic, and advocates areas in which both governance and policy can be tangibly improved.

The promised six-month review of the Coronavirus Act 2020 has been completed, allowing for the extension of powers under the Act, just as a new three-tier system has been introduced in England, the Welsh Assembly adopted a travel ban from high-infection areas in other parts of the UK, highlighting a complicating factor in evaluation of governmental response to COVID-19 which is the divergence of regimes across the UK, as health policy is a devolved competence.

The scale, scope and impact of regulations limiting private and commercial life is unprecedented, and has raised numerous democratic, rule of law, and human rights concerns. There is no perfect legislative or policy response to the pandemic. There are, however, good practices and principles which can guide action and lead to a more effective response which have been observable globally. Central to any response to the pandemic is legal certainty, transparency in decision-making, clarity in communication, an early reaction, and coordinated strategy. Democratic oversight in the form of parliamentary scrutiny and external engagement can lead to better quality law and policy when governments adapt to criticism.

The Coronavirus Act 2020 notably did not give or extend specific lockdown powers to government. COVID-19 regulations in England have been introduced by government under the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984. The Coronavirus Act 2020 did, however, extend powers to quarantine as well as to restrict or close premises as well as the power to prohibit any gatherings to Ministers in each of the UK’s constitutive governments. The six-month Parliament review was a concession accepted by government, against criticism of the length of the sunset clause (two years, with the option for Parliament-approved six-month extensions) in the Act. It allowed for a debate on the expiry of the Act. Despite many criticisms of both the framework of the act, and the use of powers under it, the vote in the House of Commons was overwhelmingly in favour.

However, six months from the introduction of the Coronavirus Act (and nearly nine months from the declaration of a global health emergency), Parliament is operational and far more is known about viral transmission, yet the inadequacy of parliamentary scrutiny remains. An overwhelming majority of the COVID-19 measures came into force either the same day, or within a day, of being introduced by government and without scrutiny (albeit subject to the affirmative procedure which requires parliamentary approval within 28 days). There is little justification where the underlying legislation allows only for measures to be introduced without parliamentary approval where the urgency demands it to be necessary. This is all the more concerning where, for example, self-isolation rules with fines up to £10,000 for breach were applicable within hours of being introduced.

A significant number of regulations have been announced first in press conferences, or to journalists rather than first before Parliament despite repeated censure by the Speaker and the opposition. Backbench MPs have also increasingly criticised the government for side-lining Parliament during the pandemic, and called for greater oversight and control over the use of powers under the Coronavirus Act 2020 and the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984. The myriad of regulations introduced under these acts (and with very limited scrutiny) has translated into hypertrophied executive dominance but not necessarily better governance. Legal uncertainty has characterised much of the government’s COVID-19 response; the lack of clarity and the absence of long-term strategizing has also often served to undermine policy and compliance.

While lack of clarity was a point of criticism in a parliamentary committee report on the government’s COVID-19 response, a further point of criticism was that there were only a six-month reviews, and there was little provision for more frequent and thematic debates on individual measures. Of course the executive is typically best placed to respond quickly in the initial phases of emergency, but it is unjustifiable to continue doing so without scrutiny where pandemic management has moved from reaction to control. Beyond the point of legality and democratic legitimation of government action (Parliament, not government, is sovereign after all), there are clear and positive practical effects of having more and greater oversight. Debate and scrutiny allow for the identification and remedy of confusion, contradiction, or inconsistencies in the rules. This is even more pressing when the individual impact and restriction of personal liberties is so extreme. In good practice observed internationally, states which learn from error, engage with criticism, and adapt have higher levels of compliance and fare better.

Following initial responses to emergency, it is good practice for governments to use all available information to produce guides which communicate to individuals and businesses what is expected of them; what restrictions apply and do not apply; and when and under what circumstances or conditions the rules will change. This can help effective short- and long-term planning both for the government and for the public. The introduction of a new three-tier system in England (in force two days after being introduced) to replace the regime of local lockdown regulations operating since July 2020 is helpful and a positive step towards a coherent strategy. However, ongoing uncertainty as to what it means in practice, particularly in the complicated underlying regime of exceptions (and potentially exceptions to exceptions), compounded by uncertainty regarding the basis upon which areas will be moved from one tier to the next, risks a medium to high (or very high) level of non-compliance.

A foundation of public trust in government action, and corresponding compliance with COVID-19 measures, is transparency in decision-making. It should include publishing the rationale which underlies the introduction of restrictive measures (or for not introducing restrictive conditions against the advice of SAGE) is important for justifying the positions taken. Simply, it is far easier to follow a rule, when the reasoning underlying that rule is clear. The absence of information invites speculation and false assumptions. There is a clear need for a transparent process by which, for example, areas in England will be moved from one tier to another beyond this being ‘subject to review’ based on ‘a rise in transmission’.

Beyond clarity, certainty, and transparency in legal measures and policies, a final aspect underlining the most effective and sustainable long-term policy in tackling COVID is coordination. This is not as only between central government, devolved administrations, and regional authorities, but beyond that to the international sphere. As all states face a common challenge, there is a wealth of comparative experience from which to draw the best practices in tackling a global health emergency.


Note: the above is based on the recommendations within J Grogan and N Weinberg, ‘Principles to Uphold the Rule of Law and Good Governance in a Public Health Emergency’ RECONNECT Policy Brief.

About the Author

Joelle Grogan is a Senior Lecturer in law at Middlesex

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